Inspur Information (000977): The biggest beneficiary of the rebound in industry demand is the world’s first sail
A number of leading indicators indicate that demand has shown a warming trend, and the inflection point at the bottom of the industry cycle is now expected. The global server 重庆耍耍网 industry in 2019Q4-2020Q1 is expected to begin to pick up: upstream chip cycles reflect 2-3 quarters of leading servers, and 19Q1 and 19Q3 Aspeed and Intel have both picked up.Cloud computing market: In the third quarter of 2019, the capital expenditure growth rate of major overseas CSP vendors rebounded to 13.
2%, the domestic Ali has improved significantly from the previous month, Tencent exceeded expectations, the demand of other Internet vendors has gradually increased, and the trend for 20 years is clear; the operator market: 2019 is a small year for server purchases, 5G commercial growth, and 2020 is likely to usher in a big year, China Mobile and China Unicom’s procurement expectations are clear; and China Mobile’s 100 billion public cloud investment plan is expanded. It is expected that the operator market will bring 都市夜网 more increments to the industry starting in 20 years.
We believe that the industry will realize the industry trend of independent innovation and foreign cooperation. X86 and ARM servers have sufficient growth opportunities. They are optimistic about the development of the domestic server market in the past 20 years. Inspur information leaders continue to expand and are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of the industry’s recovery.: 1) Cloud computing: The domestic first-tier public cloud vendors have seen a significant rise in capital expansion in the third quarter. It is expected that in 20 years, Ali and Tencent’s purchases are expected to usher in another increase; in 1919, JD.com, headlines and other Internet vendors have also noticeably increased demand;It is estimated that the revenue of Internet vendors will increase by 30% in 20 years; 2) Operators: Inspur shared about 21% in the past, second only to Huawei; after China Mobile entered the public cloud, it is conservatively expected that the operator’s market share will increase to 25% +, and it is expected to be 20 yearsThe operator’s market revenue increased by 40% +; 3) The overall domestic continuous improvement, 19Q3 has reached the historically optimal level (global share) 9.
0%), and the company’s scale effect is emerging: human efficiency and operating efficiency continue to improve; 4) Since the production of upstream materials, the company gradually began to produce upstream raw materials in 19 years, we expect to increase the company’s net interest rate in the long run.
5-1%; 5) Shandong Province fully promotes the construction of digital Shandong, using information technology as the core driving force for the development of new kinetic energy, and Inspur, as a leading enterprise in the information industry in Shandong Province, will fully benefit;As a result of the changes, as the industry leader, the company will also quickly achieve docking and continue to maintain the position of the leader.
Profit forecast: It is estimated that from 2019 to 2021, the company’s operating income will be 540/722/912 trillion, and its net profit will be 8.
9 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.
55 yuan; 40 times PE in 2020, target market value of 54.8 billion, corresponding to a target price of 42.
40 yuan, given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: CSP manufacturers’ capital expenditures are recovering less than expected, and they are overly optimistic about the expansion and adjustment of competitive layout.