China Jushi (600176): Q3 performance is still under pressure and waits for the turning point of the industry

China Jushi (600176): Q3 performance is still under pressure and waits for the turning point of the industry

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three times achieved revenue of 77.

3.8 billion yuan (+1.

43%), net profit attributable to mother 15.

4.9 billion (-19.

02%), after deducting non-return to the mother’s net profit of 14.

5.5 billion (-24.

09%), of which Q3 achieved revenue of 26.

7.6 billion (+2.

47%), net profit attributable to mother 4.

9.5 billion (-23.

31%), net profit after deduction is 4

8.9 billion (-24,71%).

  Comments: Target price 11.

4 yuan and maintain “Buy” rating: Considering that the industry supply and demand pattern is still under pressure in the fourth quarter, we lower the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to 0.

59, 0.

76, 0.

91 yuan (0 before adjustment.

73, 0.

87 and 1.

05 yuan), corresponding to the PE of 19-21 years were 14 respectively.

4, 11.

2, 9.

3x, cut target price to 11.

4 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Volume increases and prices fall, Q3 performance is under pressure: According to estimates, the company’s sales of glass fiber and products in the first three quarters were about 126 tons, a growth rate of 5%, of which high-end products increased by about 15%, mainly from the wind power sector.It is about 44 inches, with an increase of more than 20%. The technical reformation of the Jiujiang base in 18Q2 and the new intelligent manufacturing line in 18Q4 were ignited, which led to an increase in overall production capacity and sales.

However, due to the increase in throughput last year and the impact on coaxial (the roving electronic yarn totaled about 105), and the global economic downturn and the increase in demand caused by the trade war, the price of alkali-free yarn has continued to decline since the beginning of this year.For example, the average price of the first three quarters was replaced by about 10%, of which the average price of Q3 was replaced by about 6 from Q2.

1%, the price increase caused the company’s Q3 gross profit rate to recover 38.

91%, more than ten years.

The two totals are 0 down from the previous month.

8 units; in addition to the demand for wind power yarns in the high-end product sector, thermoplastic products are affected by the overall production and sales of automobiles. Electronic fiberglass cloth has fallen below 3 yuan / square meter, which is almost the same as last year’s high price.

  Inventories continued to increase, and the expense ratio increased during Q3: the company’s inventory was 20 at the end of the third quarter.

810,000 yuan, an increase of 24 from the beginning of the year.

2%. At present, the overall inventory cycle of the company’s products is 2 months. The inventory has increased to increase due to the increase in the company’s production capacity, and the supply has increased. Due to the macroeconomic impact, the overall demand growth has improved, and the company’s production-sales ratio has been at least caused.At the end of the period, the company’s asset-liability ratio increased by about 0 from the previous month.

2 up to 53.

94%, the overall 成都桑拿网 debt structure in the third quarter did not change much; the company’s period expenses in the third quarter16.

65%, an increase of 2 per year.

71 pcts, which is an increase of 1 from the previous month.

61 pcts, of which the sales expense ratio increased by 1 from the previous month.15 pct, mainly due to the increase in transportation and storage costs, the financial expense ratio increased by 0 from the previous quarter.

9 majorities, mainly due to the increase in debt financing in the second quarter leading to an increase in the three quarters of the index; the gradual easing of the trade war, the impact of the US market may gradually decrease: the first phase of the recent Sino-US trade war reached an agreement, and the United States willThe US $ 100 million USD tax list product has started the exclusion process. If the exclusion application is approved, the tariffs that have been levied since September 1, 2019 can be returned. Therefore, the impact of the easing of the trade war on the US market may be further weakened. In addition,The company’s US line has been put into production on May 19, and the local production capacity layout will help the company to further expand the US market. After the production line is put into operation, the company’s total glass fiber production capacity is expected to increase.

6% to 181.

8 for the first time, of which overseas production capacity will reach 29.

6 samples, accounting for 16% of the company’s total production capacity.

3%.

The production line is a step in the company’s three places and five continents strategy. It also represents the acceleration of the company’s internationalization process and the deepening of its “external supply and external” strategy. The industry accelerates integration and waits for the industry inflection point: We believe that Q4 external environment and industry supply and demandThe pattern is still under pressure, and the price of rovings has room to fall. At the current price level, some SMEs are already facing challenges. If the downward price cycle continues, it will inevitably accelerate the reshuffle of the industry and gradually increase the concentration of the industry. As the industry leader, the companyScale, channel, and brand are integrated. The product structure and internal throughput are more reasonable, and the ability to withstand the royal cycle is stronger. The industry’s downward cycle will gradually consolidate the consolidation leader, gradually the industry will gradually clear its production capacity, and the industry turning point will gradually approach.

  Risk warning: production capacity release exceeds expectations, global economy continues to grow, raw fuel prices rise more than expected